Commodities and crypto markets are moving in opposite directions on Tuesday, October 28, 2026, as traders position ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision on Wednesday.
1. Commodities: Gold Rebounds, Oil Eases From Highs
After slipping below $4,000 last week for the first time since July, gold staged a sharp recovery.
- Gold: December futures climbed $36.20 (+0.90%) to settle at $4,074.60 an ounce【1094733054994403467†L19-L22】. Spot gold held above $4,000, trading near $4,031.15 (-0.19%)【1094733054994403467†L31-L34】 and later near $4,060.33 (+1.1%)
- Silver: December silver rose $0.17 (+0.32%) to $54.51【1094733054994403467†L19-L22】, with spot at $53.75 (-1.08%)【1094733054994403467†L31-L34】 and $53.38 (-1.78%)
- Oil: WTI crude fell -$1.86 (-1.83%) to settle at $99.90【1094733054994403467†L15-L18】, Brent slid -$1.93 (-1.67%) to $113.88【1094733054994403467†L15-L18】. Earlier Brent was quoted at $109.81 (-0.86%)【1094733054994403467†L31-L34】. WTI also reported at $101.10 (-0.65%) and Brent $114.98【1094733054994403467†L44-L47】
The pullback came as Iranian Security Council chief Mohsen Rezaei met Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei after talks with Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, easing near-term war premium. However, Houthi attacks on Saudi targets and Washington hints at more strikes on Iran keep prices near multi-month highs.
Precious metals traders are watching the Fed: a stronger dollar (DXY at 102.07) is capping gold, while cooling energy prices ease inflation fears and support non-yielding assets.
2. Crypto: Bitcoin Holds $80k as ETF Inflows Return
Bitcoin is stabilizing after dipping below $80,000 for the first time since Oct 15.
- Bitcoin (BTC): Closed at $80,795 (+0.8%) after a $79,400-$81,150 range【1127973656590657926†L69-L73】. Other prints: $80,676.04 (+0.8%)【1127973656590657926†L20-L23】, $80,812 (+1.16%), and $80,565 (+1.0%)
- Ethereum (ETH): $2,345.46 (+1.1%)【1127973656590657926†L20-L23】, $2,347 (+1.77%), and $2,347 (+1.0%)
- Total crypto market cap: $2.67T (+1.0%), Bitcoin dominance 60.6%【1127973656590657926†L72-L75】
- Top movers: Zcash (ZEC) +6.0% to $1,310【1127973656590657926†L75-L78】, XRP +2.3% to $1.32
Flow story: US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $110 million on Monday, ending two days of outflows, according to Farside Investors data reported by CoinDesk. This came after $635.6 million outflows on Oct 22 and $772.4 million on Oct 22-23 combined.
Futures volume rose 18% to $152 billion, liquidations eased to $133 million, but put-call skews remain positive — traders still paying for downside protection. The most traded option was a $72,000 put expiring Dec 25.
3. Macro Link: Fed Decision Tomorrow
The Fed begins its two-day meeting today, decision Wednesday Oct 28 at 2:00 PM ET. CME FedWatch shows ~90% chance of no change (hold at 3.75%-4.00%), with 83% probability of a hike in December. US 10-year yield at 4.963%, consumer confidence rose to 91.7 in October vs 84.2 in September.
For commodities, a hawkish hold would support dollar and pressure gold. For crypto, holding $80,000 is key — a reclaim opens $85,000, a break below $79,000 puts $75,500 in play.
Bottom Line: Commodities are reacting to diplomacy, crypto to ETF flows. Both await the Fed's forward guidance tomorrow.
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